People of PCHES: Theo Avila

Only three years into his undergraduate studies, Theo stands out as the sole undergraduate researcher on the PCHES project, making significant strides in environmental research. As a physics major at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Theo has submitted his first scientific paper on wildfire indices for peer review and is now working on a second study integrating soil moisture projections into crop yield models.

Although he began his undergraduate studies with thoughts of biophysics, the allure of using physics to address practical environmental questions quickly redirected his path. From reading scientific papers by his current mentor Dr. Ryan Sriver and other scientists, he became fascinated by the ability to predict extreme sea levels using data and models and how these techniques could inform decision-making.

Theo’s journey into research began when he embarked on a research project investigating fire risk. Growing up in fire-prone Los Angeles, he found the study of fire risk both compelling and essential. Building on a master’s thesis and subsequent research by previous students in Dr. Sriver’s lab, Theo’s work evaluated physical wildfire risk in the western U.S. by comparing Earth system models downscaled using the MACA approach to observational data (gridMET), analyzing multidecadal trends and future projections of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) under different emission pathways, and comparing results to a simple time series model. This research aims to improve the accuracy of both short-term and long-term wildfire predictions by combining advanced dynamic models with time series analysis that can assist in uncovering biases in the models, ultimately leading to more reliable forecasts and a better understanding of regional wildfire risks.

Currently, Theo is also expanding his focus into a new PCHES project that integrates extensive soil moisture ensembles generated with the pyWBM simple water balance model and a fixed-effects linear regression approach to forecast crop yields under various climatic conditions.

Theo’s recent summer internship at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) at Princeton University further sharpened his computational skills, giving him hands-on experience with hierarchical clustering and neural network approaches for investigating climate models in dynamical models and observational data. This training offered valuable insights into model development, including the underlying assumptions and technical complexities involved, enabling a deeper understanding of model sensitivity to these factors. He also enjoyed attending seminars and collaborating with world-renowned scientists, broadening his perspective on possibilities within environmental research.

Theo’s rapid growth as a researcher is driven by the outstanding mentorship from within his research group. Their guidance has not only enhanced his technical skills but also deepened his passion for research. These formative early undergraduate research experiences within the PCHES project inspired his pursuit of a career in science.

Looking ahead, Theo plans to apply to graduate school, with interests spanning agricultural and environmental economics, downscaling, or physical oceanography. With strong programming and data analysis skills that translate across diverse fields, he is eager to use his interdisciplinary experience to connect ideas from various disciplines and continue conducting meaningful environmental research.

Balancing a demanding coursework schedule with research, Theo prioritizes effective time management to also make room for personal interests like reading, baking, and cooking. When he has free time, his favorite thing to do is bake rosemary bread.